Predict
OINK Predict is a daily match pool. One featured OINK Soccer match a day, one question: will the home team win? Back Yes or No with ALGO. When the match is played, the winning side shares the whole pot.
You do not need a soccer team, a season pass or an account. Any Algorand wallet can play at oink.club/predict.
The daily match
| Featured match | The Premier League's 20:30 UTC fixture, or the last cup tie of the day at 20:00 UTC |
| Pool opens | In the morning, as soon as the day's fixtures are scheduled |
| Lineups lock | Four hours before kickoff: 16:30 UTC for a league match, 16:00 for a cup tie |
| Picks close | Five minutes before kickoff, or earlier if the result's random seed arrives first |
| Handicap | A half-goal line set each morning so the two sides are as even as we can make them; the page spells out what Yes and No mean |
| Result | Normal time only, read against the line. On the plain line a draw means No wins, even if a cup tie goes to penalties |
You can pick from the morning. The lineups, formations, tactics, items and injuries of both teams are frozen four hours before kickoff and published on the page; from then on what you see is exactly what the match engine will use, and both managers are locked out of lineup, tactics and item changes until kickoff. A pick placed before the lock is placed without the final lineups, so check the page again after the lock if you want to add to it.
The handicap line
When one side is much stronger, a plain "will they win?" pool is lopsided. So each morning, when the pool opens, the match engine plays the fixture 200 times with the teams as they stand, and the line is set to the half-goal handicap that comes closest to a 50/50 split. The line never changes once the pool is open, and it is always half a goal, so no score can land on it.
- Plain line (away +0.5): Yes if the home team wins. A draw means No.
- Home −1.5: Yes only if the home team wins by two or more.
- Home +1.5: Yes if the home team wins, draws, or loses by just one.
The question on the page is written out in full for the day's line, and the insights section shows how it was set: how often the home side won, drew and lost in the simulations, the average margin, and the share of runs Yes would have covered. The simulations are a guide, not a prediction. If you think the line is off, that is your edge.
How to play
- Connect an Algorand wallet.
- Pick Yes (home team wins) or No (away wins or draw).
- Enter a stake in ALGO and confirm the transaction in your wallet.
- After the match, your winnings arrive in your wallet automatically.
Your first pick on a given day also deposits 0.0221 ALGO for the on-chain record of your position. It comes back to you after the match whether you win or lose, so it is a deposit rather than a cost. Network fees are about 0.002 ALGO per transaction.
Each wallet can back only one side per match. You can add to your pick as often as you like while the pool is open, but you cannot switch sides, reduce a stake or cash out early. All picks are final.
What you win
The pot is everything staked on both sides. After the result, 1% is taken as a platform fee and the remaining 99% is split between the winning side in proportion to each stake:
your return = your stake × (pot × 0.99) ÷ total staked on the winning side
Your return includes your original stake. A losing pick returns nothing except the 0.0221 ALGO deposit.
The fee only ever comes out of the losing side's stakes: it is capped at what the losers put in, so a winning pick always returns at least what you staked, even when almost everyone backed the same side.
Worked example
The pot stands at 400 ALGO on Yes and 600 ALGO on No. You stake 100 ALGO on Yes, so Yes holds 500 and the pot is 1,100.
- Home team wins: the fee is 11 ALGO, leaving 1,089 to share. You hold 100 of the 500 ALGO on Yes, one fifth, so you receive 217.8 ALGO: your 100 back plus 117.8 profit.
- Draw or away win: you receive nothing, and your 0.0221 ALGO deposit is returned.
Had you backed No with the same 100 ALGO instead, No would hold 700 of the 1,100 pot. A draw or away win would pay 100 ÷ 700 × 1,089 = 155.6 ALGO.
What the split means for you
The less popular side pays more, because fewer stakes share the same pot. The page shows the current split and an estimated return for your stake as you type.
| Winning side's share of the pot | Return per 1 ALGO staked |
|---|---|
| 25% | 3.96 ALGO |
| 40% | 2.48 ALGO |
| 50% | 1.98 ALGO |
| 60% | 1.65 ALGO |
| 75% | 1.32 ALGO |
| 90% | 1.10 ALGO |
These are not odds set by a bookmaker. They move with every pick until the pool closes, so the final return can differ from the estimate you saw when you staked. Large stakes move the split against themselves.
Refunds
Everyone gets their full stake back, with no fee, when:
- only one side was backed,
- the match is voided before picks close, or
- no result is reported within 24 hours of kickoff. After that, anyone can trigger the refunds on-chain.
Payouts
You do not have to come back to claim. After the result, every winning and losing position is paid out to its wallet: winnings for the winners, the 0.0221 ALGO deposit for everyone. Payouts are plain ALGO, so there is nothing to opt in to.
If you would rather not wait, the Claim button on the match page pays your position immediately. Positions never expire.
Fair play
- Frozen inputs. Both lineups are published before picks open, with a cryptographic hash that the page checks against the contract. The match is simulated from exactly those inputs.
- Committed randomness. The simulation's random seed is the hash of an Algorand block chosen in advance. Nobody can stake once that block exists, which is why a pool sometimes closes a little before the five-minute mark.
- Immutable contract. Each day's pool is its own Algorand application that cannot be updated or deleted. It holds every stake and enforces the payout maths. A link to it is on the match page under the small print.
- No insiders. The wallets that hold the two competing teams, and the operator wallet that reports the score, cannot enter the pool.
- What is trusted. The OINK game server reports the normal-time score. The contract enforces the payout but does not replay the football simulation itself.
FAQ
Can I back both sides? Not from the same wallet. Once a wallet has picked a side it can only add to that pick.
Is there a minimum or maximum stake? Any amount above zero. There is no maximum, but a very large stake shrinks its own return by taking a bigger share of the winning side.
Does the pool affect the league? No. The featured match is played exactly as it would be anyway; the pool simply sits alongside it.
Why did picks close early? The random seed block arrived before the five-minute cut-off. Entries always close at whichever comes first.
I won but nothing arrived. Payouts run shortly after the result and retry if a wallet cannot receive funds. Use Claim on the match page to collect right away. Yesterday's and earlier pools are reachable with the date arrows.
Can I lose more than my stake? No. The most you can lose is what you staked. Your deposit always comes back.
The predictions league
Every correct pick earns 3 points in the season's predictions league. Any stake counts, however small; a refunded market scores nobody. Standings run per OINK Soccer season and sit in full under the match on the predict page, earlier seasons included.
Ties are split by fewer wrong picks, then more ALGO staked on winning picks, then whoever reached the total first.
At the end of the season the leader is the predictions champion and receives a prize from the community wallet alongside the league and cup prizes, paid out the same way. The champion is a wallet rather than a team, so you do not need to own a club to win it.